Chasing a flush on-line – Occasionally the numbers just do not add up!
There’s an age old debate in poker – really should you chase a flush? Initially of all we must define what we mean here by "chasing a flush online."
Chasing anything in Texas hold em poker is the practice of wagering to stay in a hands in the hope that you will produce a much better palm, even even though you could possibly have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush implies wagering which you will get the card or card which you need to total your flush hands to the turn or river. You cannot chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush isn’t on.
So let’s say you happen to be wagering one of the large poker websites on-line, you’ve been dealt the Ace and nine of spades and you have paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s 7 spades King of diamonds and one of your opponents comes out betting strongly with a fair sized increase, what do you do?
Initially of all ask your self what sort of hands you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, a different flush draw, a pair of Kings or a complete bluff, so as it stands you happen to be only winning against the bluff with your Ace. On the other hands in case you hit a spade in the last two cards you’ve the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or four of a kind.
On the face of it you might assume that statistically you may have about a 50-50 likelihood of hitting your spade, after all there’s 2 cards to arrive and 4 suits so there must be about a half chance, right?
Wrong!
You already have two of the spades in your hands and there is an additional 2 showing to the table, so you know five cards and four of them are spades. That signifies you’ve got 9 spades left accessible out of the forty seven cards you have not seen, which is only a forty two per cent possibility of catching your flush.
In the event you do wager about the turn and do not produce your flush, what do you do then? You might have probably now turn out to be pot-committed, you have put so significantly into the pot which you may possibly as effectively wager again on the river unless there is a big increase or all-in against you, except now your chances of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only 21 per cent.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious web poker syndrome? What I imply by that’s despite the fact that you statistically have a 42 percent chance of creating a flush, is that what truly happens in reality? In the event you bet the exact same hands at the identical online poker table 100 times would you receive a flush forty two occasions? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to come around a whole lot less usually than 42 out of one hundred times!
That’s just my own opinion and I am certain the poker web sites would tell you a unique story, except the way I see it’s forty two per-cent will be the very Best you are ever going to get and you might nicely have a whole lot much less opportunity than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the net is a extremely risky strategy that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you enough of a possibility of pulling out the winning hand.
